the next step in this. you know, right now, for instance, i argue that obama actually has a commanding -- not all three-point leads are alike. it's actually a solid lead for the president, why? because 49's a winning number. 47, 44, would be a terrible lead for barack obama even though it'd be the same three points, if you get my drift. 49's a magic number in this race. so step one is coalescing republicans, and that is accounting, i think, for a lot of this increase in the last week. step two we'll find out after the debates, does he start peeling off the soft obama supporters. that's going to be the harder step, but that's what the debates -- >> it's weird we're talking three, two, talking one. and this is the nbc poll, but then you've got rasmussen and gallup. but it's all you've got. >> obviously we spend a lot more money polling than scott rasmussen does. >> he was right, though, the last couple of elections. >> not right at the end. >> yeah. >> it's what happens in the middle sometimes it seems a litt